Why heartland could turn out to be hurtland for BJP | India News

What would occur in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls if voters stuck to their party choices? A mapping of the assembly segments onto the pertinent parliamentary seats indicates that the BJP would however earn 17 out of 29 in MP and 13 out of 25 in Rajasthan, but get almost wiped out in Chhattisgarh profitable just just one of the state’s 11 seats.

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But does this kind of a mapping make feeling? Earlier practical experience suggests it is not a poor tough information. These states have held assembly polls barely six months or considerably less in advance of the Lok Sabha polls of 2004, 2009 and 2014. In every single case, their verdict in the parliamentary seats has a lot more or a lot less mirrored the assembly consequence. The sole exception is Rajasthan in 2004, when it gave the BJP 20 of 25 Lok Sabha seats despite acquiring defeated the party in the December 2003 assembly polls.

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If the pattern retains, that could be genuinely undesirable news for the BJP considering the fact that it had won all 25 seats in Rajasthan, 27 of 29 seats in MP and 10 of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh in 2014. That’s a full of 62 out of 65 Lok Sabha seats. The latest mapping suggests that amount could appear down to 31, half of the 2014 tally. Of study course, the Congress tally would increase correspondingly. Supplied that the 2014 efficiency would be really hard to repeat in Uttar Pradesh in any case, this is a decline the BJP can sick manage.

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